AL EAST - Toronto Blue Jays

Newly acquired SP R.A. Dickey explains his knuckleball mechanics to the Toronto media.

OVERVIEW:

It might be understating things a little bit to say that the Blue Jays had an interesting off-season. A more accurate way of describing what happened in the off-season would be simply "holy s**t". Long a team with tantalizing potential but just enough holes to prevent them from serious contention in the AL East, the Blue Jays completely changed the course of their franchise when they traded several prospects to the Miami Marlins for a package of proven MLB veterans that included Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle. A day later they signed PED-tainted outfielder Melky Cabrera. Realizing that the Jays were now a serious contender, GM Alex Anthopolous gambled and traded top prospect Travis d'Arnaud for reigning NL Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey.

All of this means that the gambling community is all-in on the Toronto Blue Jays. Las Vegas currently rates them as the most likely team to win the World Series, a shocking development for a team that went 73-89 last season and hasn't been to the playoffs since their last World Series win in 1993. But as good as they appear on paper, it's worth looking a little closer to see exactly what we should project as the Blue Jays' win total. Despite the fact that the Jays are my favourite team, I've attempted to be objective in my scenario projections for the team. The results show a strong AL contender, no question, but we might want to take a breath before anointing them the unquestioned favourites in baseball, let alone in the AL East.

POSITION PLAYERS:

 C JP Arencibia (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.4 WAR avg. in good season)

With d'Arnaud out of the picture, the Blue Jays have committed to Arencibia as their long-term catcher. Defensively, Arencibia still leaves a little to be desired (his caught-stealing percentage has consistently ranked among the worst in the league among starting catchers), but the Jays' now-veteran pitching staff will suffer less from Arencibia's inexperience in pitch-calling. Of greater concern is the fact that Arencibia is an absolute black hole when it comes to getting on base. Still, Arencibia does provide an increasingly rare asset amongst catchers: legitimate 20-25 home-run potential. Even penciling in Arencibia for an atrocious .280ish OBP, his power alone makes him a slightly above-average asset at his position. If JP manages to improve his plate discipline, he may just take the leap into the 3-4 WAR range.

1B Adam Lind (-0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.3 WAR avg. in good season)

Lind is the fly in the ointment of the Blue Jays' championship aspirations. He has precisely one good year to his credit: his age-25 season, when he put together a .305-35-114 season with an OBP of .370 and a slugging % of .562. Nothing Lind has done since has approached those levels. He followed up 2009 with a -1.3 WAR season in 2010, a -0.2 one in 2011 and a 0.0 in 2012 (albeit in 93 games). Still, Lind did seem to be somewhat improved after his stint in the minor leagues. The best-case scenario for the Blue Jays (aside from the increasingly unlikely scenario in which Lind returns to 2009-form) is that John Gibbons comes to his senses and limits Lind's exposure against left-handed pitchers, shifting Edwin Encarnacion to first base (a defensive dropoff but not a huge one as both are awful at first) and going with a speedier lineup featuring either Rajai Davis or Emilio Bonifacio.

2B Maicer Izturis (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.2 WAR avg. in good season)

The Jays will most likely spot-start the versatile Emilio Bonifacio at second, but for now I'm giving the starting job to the 32 year-old Izturis. Defensively, Izturis has regressed in the past couple of years as his range has gotten tighter. And he's certainly not going to be threatening the home-run record any time soon. Still, he always provides a semi-decent OBP for a second-baseman and has some speed. Izturis isn't much better than a replacement player...but just by enough to get a starting gig.

SS Jose Reyes (1.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.2 WAR avg. in good season)

Reyes was one of the Jays' prize offseason acquisitions and still is a dynamic player. His lone season in Miami was disappointing by Reyes' standards, though, as he dropped from a .384/.493/.877 line to a .347/.433/.780 one. Still, those numbers are right in line with Reyes' career averages, and at age 30, there's no reason to think that the dropoff from 2011 to 2012 is indicative of any kind of career slump. It's worth noting that Reyes is no sure thing anymore: he's been a sub-3 WAR player in three of the past four seasons, and until last year's 160-game effort Reyes had averaged only 98 games played from 2009 to 2011. Reyes' 60+ steal days are long gone, but batting at the top of what should be a fairly potent order, Reyes should get 30-35 steals while batting in the .290-.310 range. Reyes is a little bit of a risk, but even his floor is fairly productive.

3B Brett Lawrie (2.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 4.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.2 WAR avg. in good season)

After a terrific 43-game stint in 2011, Lawrie entered 2012 with tremendous expectations, and it's safe to say he failed to live up to them. His production numbers dropped from .373/.580/.953 to .324/.405/.729, he annoyed fans (and possibly teammates) with his reckless baserunning mistakes, and he generally seemed to be a loose cannon. But with all that said, at one point in June, Lawrie was actually leading the American League in wins above replacement. His defensive range is so good that even if he doesn't return to the power numbers he demonstrated in his spectacular 2011 debut, Lawrie should cruise to a 4+ WAR season. If he gets anywhere close to a .900 OPS, then you're talking about a legitimate MVP candidate. At only 23, the sky is still the limit with Lawrie. Against that optimism, though, one must recognize that Lawrie's reckless style lends itself to injuries. It would be nice to see Lawrie dial it back a notch and stay in the lineup for more than 140 games.

LF Melky Cabrera (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.1 WAR avg. in good season)

This is the player for the Jays that causes me the most concern. At 2 years, $8 million per year, it's a fantastic signing for Anthopolous, because even under the worst-case scenario for Cabrera, the contract is nowhere close to franchise-crippling (cough, Vernon Wells, cough), and the upside is huge if Cabrera continues the form he displayed in his last two seasons. About that worst-case scenario, though: from his age-22 to age-25 seasons, Cabrera was a -0.5 WAR to 1.0 WAR player, before putting up a 4.1 WAR in 2011 with Kansas City and a staggering 4.7 in only 113 games last season with San Francisco. If you're cynical and believe that the growth in Cabrera's production was 100% tied to his PED-use, then the risk with Cabrera is twofold: either he stops using PEDs and his production drops off to pre-2011 levels, or he continues using and is productive, but is constantly at risk of being suspended for 100 games if he gets caught again. More likely though is that Cabrera has improved his plate discipline as he's matured into his late twenties, and the PED dropoff will affect only his power numbers and BABIP. If that's the case, and I'm hoping it is, Cabrera is still an above-average #2 hitter and should check in with at least a 2+ WAR season...making him well worth the $8 million gamble.

CF Colby Rasmus (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.8 WAR avg. in good season)

Rasmus was in the middle of a solid 2012 season (and still did tie his career high with 23 home runs) at the All-Star break, but his post all-star numbers were laughably bad, with Rasmus' strikeouts skyrocketing and his on-base percentage plummeting. The former top prospect is still relatively young, but he's entering his age-26 season, meaning time is beginning to run out before it becomes clear that Rasmus simply is incapable of learning plate discipline. Basically Rasmus is the center-field equivalent to J.P. Arencibia: both are brutal at getting on base but have 20-25 home run potential. If both players take the next step and add increased patience to their game, the Blue Jays lineup will be fearsome. But even with limited improvement, Rasmus and Arencibia both add a little bit of value because of their bottom-of-the-order power potential.

RF Jose Bautista (2.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 4.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.7 WAR avg. in good season)

The Jays' best player (barring a Lawrie breakout), Bautista has been a home-run machine since his breakout season of 2010. His HR/162 games over the past three years have been 54, 47 and 48. Unfortunately, Bautista's chances of three-straight home-run titles came to an end when a wrist injury sidelined him for 70 games. Also vexing was Bautista's drop in batting avg. to a dismal .241 (although Bautista remained an OBP machine). At 32, Bautista is entering the downside of his career, and coming off wrist surgery I'm a little concerned as to whether or not he can replicate the power display he's put on over the past three years. But even estimating conservatively, Bautista should be a 4-5 WAR player if he stays healthy. 

DH Edwin Encarnacion (0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.8 WAR avg. in good season)

Alarm bells start to go off in my head when a player posts a slugging percentage over 100 points higher than their career rates coming into the season. Some people believe that Encarnacion has put it all together and taken a Bautista-like leap in power production that will continue. To me, it's asking a little much to hope that outliers (a fancy word for PED-suspects) like Encarnacion, Cabrera and even Bautista himself all continue to produce at a fantastic rate. Still, Encarnacion did post a .482 slugging percentage two seasons ago, and even if he regresses he should be good for 27-34 home runs. A huge defensive liability (costing his team 1-2 wins in each of the past two seasons on defense), Encarnacion helps the team most when he's at the DH position...but he may have to see some spot time at first if Adam Lind continues to struggle against left-handed pitchers. I'm still a tad bullish on Encarnacion...even though he hasn't cracked a 1.5 WAR in any season except last (when he jumped to 4.6), I think expecting a 2-3 WAR season isn't excessive given Encarnacion's improved plate discipline.

BENCH (-0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.5 WAR avg. in good season)

The Jays' bench is heavier on speedsters than power, but it's still improved over 2012's mess, when Omar Vizquel was forced into heavy-duty playing time due to a rash of injuries. Versatile Emilio Bonifacio (a 1-2 WAR player) is certainly a commodity and could see 90-110 games in the right situation for the Jays, spotting Rasmus, Lind and Izturis at various times. Rajai Davis occasionally struggles in left field and considers it a success when his OBP tops .320, but he's a speed demon who should provide a little value. Josh Thole is a capable backup for Arencibia, Moises Sierra is an intriguing prospect who will be granted some extra development time (although not much if he continues his -1 WAR pace of last season), and Mark DeRosa is a sub-replacement level player who's best attribute is probably his veteran leadership.

PITCHERS:

SP R.A. Dickey (1.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.7 WAR avg. in good season)

Dickey seemingly came out of nowhere to snag the NL Cy Young award at age 37, but those in the know had recognized Dickey as a quality pitcher for the previous two seasons. While Dickey did post a career-best 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 7.08 IP/start, his averages over the previous two years were a more-than-respectable 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 6.6 IP/start. The true development for Dickey was the addition of a strikeout pitch to his arsenal: his SO/9 IP rate skyrocketed from 5.6 over 2010-2011 to 8.9 last season. Whether that will regress or not remains to be seen. Yes, Dickey is 38 years old, coming off a career year, moving from the National League to the extremely tough AL East, and shifting from a pitcher-friendly ballpark to a hitter-friendly one. But despite all that, I think the crafty knuckleballer is quite valuable, and even if he doesn't return to the 5.6 WAR level of his career season, penciling him as a 3+ WAR innings eater doesn't strike me as risky at all.

SP Josh Johnson (2.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 4.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.2 WAR avg. in good season)

Johnson entered 2012 coming off a three-year stretch from 2009-2011 in which he went 29-12 with a 2.64 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. In short, he was one of the best young pitchers in baseball. The only blemish was an injury that limited him to only 60 innings in 2011. Returning from said injury, Johnson was clearly disappointing. The pessimistic view has him staying at his 2012 levels (a middling 3.81 ERA and 1.28 WHIP) or perhaps being even worse in a tougher ballpark facing much tougher competition. But even at that level Johnson was a 3.1 WAR pitcher. Given his impending free agency, I'm banking on a rejuvenated Johnson regaining his form and, more importantly, remaining healthy. If he's anywhere near as good as his 2009-2011 stretch, the Jays' starting rotation is even more loaded than we thought.

SP Brandon Morrow (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.9 WAR avg. in good season)

For a few years, Morrow was at the head of the sabermetrician's "sleeper" list for breakout candidates. Despite a middling 1.33 WHIP and truly horrific 4.62 ERA over the 2010-2011 stretch, experts felt that Morrow's underlying stats were promising and he had just been the victim of some bad luck. Sure enough, Morrow seemed to put it all together in 2012, posting a career-best 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. The problem was that it was over only 124 innings. I may be being conservative on my Morrow projections here...he's clearly developed into more of a pitcher and less of a strikeout artist (his SO/9 IP dropped from 10+ in 2010-2011 to 7.8 in 2012, but that also kept Morrow's pitch count down and seemed to benefit his overall prowess). Yet even if his improvement is here to stay, I worry about Morrow's health. Regardless, even with only 125-150 innings or a regression to his former levels, Morrow is at the very least a 1-2 WAR pitcher.

SP Mark Buehrle (2.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.6 WAR avg. in good season)

We take Buehrle for granted. He's the least-sexy name in the Jays' rotation and probably has the lowest upside, but he also has the highest downside. Since 2001, Buehrle's WAR has never been below 2.0 and has actually been below 3.0 only twice. His last three years are models of consistency: 3.6, 3.5, 3.2. Even factoring in that Buehrle will be 34 this season, has a lot of innings under his belt, and seems prime to be shelled by the tough AL East, there's just no way I can project for anything less than a 2-4 WAR range for this reliable innings eater.

SP Ricky Romero (-0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.0 WAR avg. in good season)

Where to begin. Romero followed up an age-26 breakout in which he was an all-star and finished 10th in Cy Young voting with an absolutely atrocious season, quite possibly the worst by a starting pitcher in the majors in 2012.

Here's a visual representation of Romero's 2012:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Loik4Ii2g4&feature=player_embedded. 

His ERA nearly doubled, his WHIP skyrocketed to an unbelievable 1.67, he walked more than 5 batters per nine innings, and in general he seemed lost. After beginning the year with a fluky 8-1 record that was reflective of extreme luck, Romero rightfully lost 13 of his next 14 games. His WAR went from a sparkling 6.2 to -1.7, a shockingly high swing of nearly 8 wins. Let's acknowledge that 2011 may have been a career year for Romero...even in his previous two years, he was still a 2-3 WAR pitcher. So what can we expect? I've allotted a 25% chance that Romero is fundamentally screwed up and will struggle to get his BB/9 back down to survivable levels. But there's also a decent chance he returns to his 2009-2010 levels with the pressure off him as the Jays' #5 starter, and if Romero can come close to approaching 2011 levels, then you might as well pencil Toronto into the playoffs right now.

(NOTE: Contrary to what I expected, J.A. Happ won the #5 starting gig after Romero suffered through an awful spring. While Happ may be more stable than Romero at this point, his upside is considerably lower. I've got him projected at -0.9 WAR/0.9 WAR/2.4 WAR poor/medium/good scenarios. The Blue Jays' W-L record has been adjusted downward).

CL Casey Janssen (0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.1 WAR avg. in good season)

Whether as a setup man or a closer, Janssen has been a near 2-WAR pitcher over the past two seasons. He ably stepped into the closer spot for the Jays after an injury to Sergio Santos, and for now the job appears to be Janssen's to lose. With 22 saves and a sparkling 0.86 WHIP last year, Janssen was one of the few bright spots on the Jays. I'm looking for him to continue his success, and his save opportunities will no doubt skyrocket with a much-improved rotation in front of him.

BULLPEN (-1.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.5 WAR avg. in good season) 

The bullpen is not one of the Jays' strengths, but it should be serviceable enough. The return of the timeless Darren Oliver is nothing trivial: Oliver has been a 1.5-2.0 WAR pitcher for the past five seasons. More of a wild-card is Sergio Santos, who Alex Anthopolous acquired in last year's offseason to be the Jays' closer. The Jays are hoping Santos can return from his shoulder injury and be something in the neighbourhood of a 1-WAR setup man (and a fail-safe should Casey Janssen struggle in the setup role). Brad Lincoln was a dud after being acquired from Pittsburgh in the Travis Snider trade in the middle of 2012...whether or not he regains his Pirate form will be key to the Jays' bullpen success. Also noteworthy is Esmil Rogers, who, like Lincoln, has promising potential but has been wildly inconsistent in the past. Even if this bullpen struggles, though, it shouldn't be overexposed with the innings-gobblers that the Jays have in the starting rotation.


MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER LINE: 85.9. This number may seem low for a team with such high expectations. It is entirely possible I have been overly conservative in my projections, but it demonstrates that, while people have definitely been correct in their assessment that the Blue Jays are now a legitimate American League contender, we shouldn't rush to anoint them as the 1927 Yankees, considering they still have a few question marks at key positions and that they play in the tough American League East.

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Blue Jays finished within a given range:

Under 70 wins - 0.1%
70-74 wins - 0.6%
75-79 wins - 6.1%
80-84 wins - 24.4%
85-89 wins - 38.1%
90-94 wins - 24.4%
95-99 wins - 6.1%
Over 100 wins - 0.3%

VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 89.0 (5Dimes); 87.5 (LVH); 86.5 (Atlantis)

RECOMMENDATION: Seems like a mild Under bet. The absence of the potential for a Romero bounceback reduced the Jays' expected W-L by 1.3 wins.