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| The Yankees are hoping SP C.C. Sabathia can return from elbow surgery in vintage form. |
OVERVIEW:
A general consensus appears to be forming that the Yankees' glory days are firmly in the rear-view mirror. While it is true that the majority of their key players (for that matter, almost all of their key players) are on the wrong side of 30, I think it's important to not forget that this is still an extremely talented team that won 95 games last year.
Yes, they have lost Russell Martin, Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher, but the Yankees are also getting back Brett Gardner for a full season (barring another injury, of course) and will have both Ichiro and Andy Pettitte on hand from the get-go in 2013. And of course, the greatest closer of all-time will be returning. Pessimists point to the fact that A-Rod's injury is such an unknown that he could conceivably miss the entire season, or be the ultra-unproductive player he was in the final two months of 2012. But let's not forget that the Yankees have added Kevin Youkilis and Travis Hafner, a veteran platoon that could provide more-than-ample production to replace A-Rod's diminishing returns.
What I'm saying is: yes, the Yankees are on the decline, but they're still the Yankees, they still have talent at nearly every position, and even with conservative estimates for their players they should still be a major player in the American League. There may be the temptation to expect a disaster looming on par with the 2012 Red Sox, but don't overreact to the things that are wrong with the team and forget everything that is right.
UPDATE: All of this might have been true before a rash of injuries hit the Yankees. Now it's starting to feel like a long season for them, although they might still grit out the A.L. East.
POSITION PLAYERS:
C Austin Romine (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.9 WAR avg. in good season)
Romine will get a shot at the starting gig as the Yankees' catcher. The 24 year-old has the unenviable task of trying to make fans forget about Jorge Posada (which Russell Martin very ably did last season). With only nine major league games to his credit, it's extremely difficult to project Romine, but clearly the Yankees trust him enough to handle a veteran pitching staff in the most intense baseball market in the world. Good luck with that. In any case, veteran Chris Stewart provides able backup if Romine is in over his head...the two aren't a powerhouse duo by any stretch, but they make for a capable platoon.
1B Mark Teixeira (0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.3 WAR avg. in good season)
Since his first season with the Yankees, in which he was a legitimate MVP candidate, Teixeira has become a polarizing figure in Yankeeland. His OPS has declined in five straight seasons, and Teixeira always seems to be the victim of a brutal start to the season. Furthermore, Teixeira has earned the ire of Yankees' fans for not being a "clutch" player: according to this narrative, he amasses his numbers in the middle of a 12-2 blowout and never comes up with a hit in a close game when it matters most (in this sense, he's the anti-Jeter). Still, for the purposes of these projections, Teixeira is remarkably consistent. His WAR in the past three seasons has been 3.9 in 2010, 3.0 in 2011 and 3.6 in 2012 (despite only playing in 123 games). Given those numbers, my projections here might be a tad conservative, but they allow for Teixeira's overall downward trend. Even if he may be a favourite target of Yankees fans, it's important to remember that Teixeira remains a legitimate power threat and is one of the better defensive first basemen in the majors. (UPDATE: Or at least he was until being sidelined until late May. The Yankees injury woes continue. Teixeira's averages have been projected downward).
2B Robinson Cano (3.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 7.7 WAR avg. in good season)
Forget that odd RBI-less streak that hit Cano at the worst time of the year in 2012 (namely, September and the postseason). Cano is still one of the best and most valuable players in baseball. His OPS the last four years are a model of consistency: .871, .914, .882, .929. In two of those seasons, Cano was a 4-5 WAR player, in the other two, he was about an 8 WAR player. At only 30 years old, there's little reason to think that Cano is entering any sort of downswing. Most likely, last year's bizarre swoon was just something that happens to all baseball players: a slump. The fact that it was in New York simply magnified things.
SS Derek Jeter (0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.4 WAR avg. in good season)
Jeter's gruesome ankle injury in the ALCS last season was the emblematic cap on the Yankees' abysmal showing versus the Tigers. After off-season surgery, Jeter is hoping to be good for Opening Day, but it is asking a lot for a player who turns 39 in June to stay healthy on a gimpy ankle. After diminishing returns in 2010 and 2011, Jeter did look solid in 2012, leading the American League in hits and increasing his OPS by nearly 50 points. At this point in his career, Jeter's range is so limited that he is a defensive liability (actually, the sabermetricians would argue that's been true of Jeter at every point in his career), so even if he cranks out another .300 season, it's asking a lot to expect anything more than a 2+ WAR season.
3B Alex Rodriguez (0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.4 WAR avg. in good season)
Ah, A-Rod. Sweet, beleaguered, pariah of baseball A-Rod. In case criticizing his contract wasn't enough ammunition for Yankee fans (or for that matter, anyone who cares about baseball), A-Rod's name appeared in yet another PED scandal. With his ongoing hip problems and five years left on his contract, Rodriguez is an anchor tied around the Yankees. He appeared to be a shell of himself in the final two months of 2012, and there is reason to wonder whether he can clear even 60 games in 2013. With that said, I've projected these numbers from the third-base position because Kevin Youkilis is no slouch as a replacement at third (I'll get to Youk in the Bench section). Whether you want to list Youkilis as the Yanks' starter and A-Rod on the bench or vice versa, the combination should be good for around 1-2 wins above replacement.
LF Brett Gardner (1.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.5 WAR avg. in good season)
The Yankees' doomsdayers seem to be forgetting all about Gardner. He played only 16 games last season and the Yankees still won 95 games. In 2011, Gardner was a 3.7 WAR player...in 2010, he was a 7.0 WAR player. The point is...this is not a trivial addition for the Yankees. If Gardner plays center field and Curtis Granderson shifts to left, that will improve the team even more defensively. Gardner should also wreak havoc in the lead-off spot. Despite having no power, Gardner is usually consistently in the .350+ OBP range and can steal 40-50 bases.
CF Curtis Granderson (1.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.0 WAR avg. in good season)
Granderson was infected by the late-season slump that hit several of the Yankees. His plate discipline does seem to be waning, as evidenced by his atrocious .319 OBP in 2012 and the fact that he struckout 195 times. Nonetheless, as frustrating as he may be, Granderson now has back-to-back 40+ HR, 105+ RBI seasons to his credit. He's been a 2.5+ WAR player for seven straight seasons (though 2012's 2.7 was his lowest total in that stretch). Again, as I've said with Teixeira and will say with several of the Yankees' pitchers, it's possible Granderson will be as awful as he was in the final two months of 2012 over all of 2013, but until I see it, I'm not projecting it. SPRING TRAINING UPDATE: Granderson is expected to miss the first month of the season with a fractured forearm. His projections have been revised downward.
RF Ichiro Suzuki (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.0 WAR avg. in good season)
Somehow it just didn't seem right seeing Ichiro in pinstripes for the final two months of 2012. We're just used to him being a Mariner. It did seem to revitalize Ichiro, as he hit .322 and slugged .454 in his 67 regular-season games with New York and was one of the few Yankees who wasn't infected with the slump bug during the postseason. As with many of his fellow Yankees, Ichiro is a surefire hall-of-famer nearing the end of his career. He's only two years removed from being a 3+ WAR player, but he's become enough of a defensive liability that we can't realistically expect that for 2013. Instead, I'm penciling in Ichiro for a .290-ish season with very little power and a dash of speed, good for something in the 0.5-1.5 WAR range.
DH Travis Hafner (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.6 WAR avg. in good season)
Hafner has averaged 86 games a season in the past five seasons, so the Yankees should not realistically hope that Hafner can be their everyday DH. The good news is, he may not have to be past June. Hafner may evolve into a platoon specialist who only faces right-handed pitchers when Alex Rodriguez returns, and if that is the case (probably the best-case scenario for the Yankees), then Hafner remains quite valuable and could torch the right-field porch at Yankee stadium as Raul Ibanez did last season. If Hafner can slug his way to an .810ish OPS (quite plausible), he should check in with a 1.2-1.8 WAR season.
BENCH (1.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.3 WAR avg. in good season)
The Yankees' bench will be taxed early with injuries to Granderson, Jeter, Teixeira and A-Rod. However, I'm liking the addition of Kevin Youkilis, who may in fact be more valuable than A-Rod even when both men are healthy. Chris Stewart provides a capable backup for Austin Romine at catcher. The biggest problem is that the Yanks are going to have to lean heavily on Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera while Granderson is out. Both players are sub-replacement at this point in their careers. Perhaps I should expect fewer points from the Yankees' bench, but given their propensity to sign and/or trade for depth throughout the year, I'll stick with these projections.
PITCHERS:
SP C.C. Sabathia (2.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.7 WAR avg. in good season)
Since signing with the Yankees, the big lefty has been a model of consistency, topping 200 innings in each of his four seasons and combining for a 74-29 record, a 3.22 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. But all may not be well in Sabathia Land. C.C. struggled in the second half of the season (struggled by his standards) and ended up with his lowest WAR since 2008. He's recovering from elbow surgery, and I get the sense that the 2,500+ career innings Sabathia has thrown may be starting to catch up to him. Still, even with a greater-than-usual risk of injury, I have to project Sabathia to fall anywhere from the 3-6 WAR range. Until he proves that he's not money in the bank, I'm betting on C.C.
SP Hideki Kuroda (1.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.4 WAR avg. in good season)
In his first season in pinstripes, Kuroda had the appearance of a career year, but really it was just another season of consistent quality for the aging Japanese pitcher. The only difference is that, playing for the Yankees, Kuroda finally got some run support to match his excellent pitching. Expect Kuroda to put forward another solid year with a sub 3.50 ERA and a sub 1.20 WHIP, good for anywhere between a 3-5 WAR season.
SP Andy Pettitte (1.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.8 WAR avg. in good season)
It's tough to know what to project for the veteran Pettitte, who will turn 41 in June. In only 75 innings last season, Pettitte put up a 2.2 WAR with a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Whether or not he can continue to defy Father Time is a big key for the Yankees. I think it's entirely reasonable to expect another 2-4 WAR season from Pettitte...he's never been a pitcher who relied on velocity, but rather a veteran who uses his combined experience to out-think hitters. As with all of the Yankees, there's the potential here for Pettitte to finally hit a wall and have the tough AL East catch up to him, but until I'm given evidence to suggest otherwise, it seems fair to project Pettitte for his usual level of production.
SP Phil Hughes (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.3 WAR avg. in good season)
SP Ivan Nova (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.8 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.5 WAR avg. in good season)
CL Mariano Rivera (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.5 WAR avg. in good season)
BULLPEN (1.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.0 WAR avg. in good season)
MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER LINE: 86.7 (2nd, AL EAST). The Yankees are still the Yankees. It's become trendy to predict them to fall to the Blue Jays for the AL East crown, and perhaps to even check in behind the Rays. But when you run through their team, the Yankees are simply too talented at each position to be taken lightly. The potential for everything to go wrong is still there, but I'm not considering it too likely. (UPDATE: Although now with all these injuries, it's getting a hell of a lot more likely. The Yanks original projection was at 89.2...it has now dropped).
PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Yankees finished within a given range:
Under 70 wins - 0.1%
70-74 wins - 0.6%
75-79 wins - 6.1%
80-84 wins - 24.4%
85-89 wins - 38.1%
90-94 wins - 24.4%
95-99 wins - 6.1%
Over 100 wins - 0.6%
VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 88.0 (5Dimes); 88.5 (LVH); 86.5 (Atlantis)
RECOMMENDATION: Stay away in general, but if Vegas overreacts to the Granderson and Teixeira injuries, pounce on anything around 84 wins and bet the Over.
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