AL EAST - Tampa Bay Rays

Despite being limited to 74 games in 2012, 3B Evan Longoria remains one of the most valuable players in baseball.

OVERVIEW:

POSITION PLAYERS:

C Jose Molina (-0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.0 WAR avg. in good season)

1B James Loney (-0.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.1 WAR avg. in good season)

2B Kelly Johnson (0.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.0 WAR avg. in good season)

SS Yunel Escobar (1.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.0 WAR avg. in good season)

3B Evan Longoria (3.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 7.3 WAR avg. in good season)

LF Matt Joyce (0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.7 WAR avg. in good season)

CF Desmond Jennings (1.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.8 WAR avg. in good season)

RF Ben Zobrist (2.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 4.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.9 WAR avg. in good season)

DH Luke Scott (-0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.5 WAR avg. in good season)

BENCH (-0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.8 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.0 WAR avg. in good season)

PITCHERS:

SP David Price (1.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.1 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Jeremy Hellickson (1.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.8 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Matt Moore (1.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.9 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Jeff Niemann (-0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Alex Cobb (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.3 WAR avg. in good season)

CL Fernando Rodney (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.5 WAR avg. in good season)

BULLPEN (1.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.0 WAR avg. in good season)

MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER LINE: 86.3 (3rd, AL EAST).

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Rays finished within a given range:

Under 70 wins - 0.1%
70-74 wins - 1.0%
75-79 wins - 8.7%
80-84 wins - 28.7%
85-89 wins - 37.5%
90-94 wins - 20.0%
95-99 wins - 4.1%
Over 100 wins - 0.1%
 
VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 86.0 (5Dimes); 85.5 (LVH); 86.0 (Atlantis)

RECOMMENDATION: Stay away