AL CENTRAL - Kansas City Royals

LF Alex Gordon is one of the most well-rounded outfielders in baseball.

OVERVIEW:

POSITION PLAYERS:

C Salvador Perez (2.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.4 WAR avg. in good season) - 

1B Eric Hosmer (-0.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.1 WAR avg. in good season)

2B Chris Getz (-0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 0.8 WAR avg. in good season)

SS Alcides Escobar (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.3 WAR avg. in good season)

3B Mike Moustakas (1.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.1 WAR avg. in good season)

LF Alex Gordon (1.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.5 WAR avg. in good season)

CF Lorenzo Cain (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.7 WAR avg. in good season)

RF Jeff Francoeur (-1.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.8 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.5 WAR avg. in good season)

DH Billy Butler (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.2 WAR avg. in good season)

BENCH (-1.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.9 WAR avg. in good season) 

PITCHERS:

SP James Shields (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.4 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Jeremy Guthrie (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.7 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Ervin Santana (-0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Wade Davis (-0.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Bruce Chen (-0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.8 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.2 WAR avg. in good season)

CL Greg Holland (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.3 WAR avg. in good season)

BULLPEN (3.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 7.2 WAR avg. in good season)


MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER LINE: 83.5 (2nd, AL CENTRAL)

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Royals finished within a given range:

65-69 wins - 0.3%
70-74 wins - 4.1%
75-79 wins - 20.0%
80-84 wins - 37.5%
85-89 wins - 28.7%
90-94 wins - 8.7%
95-99 wins - 1.0%

VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 77.5 (5Dimes); 77.5 (LVH); 79.0 (Atlantis) 

RECOMMENDATION: I'm going with a strong Over recommendation. This Royals team can clear 80 wins playing the Indians and Twins 38 times.