AL EAST - Baltimore Orioles

CF Adam Jones is the Orioles' best and most consistent all-around player.

OVERVIEW:

POSITION PLAYERS:

C Matt Wieters (1.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.8 WAR avg. in good season)

1B Chris Davis (-0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.3 WAR avg. in good season)

2B Brian Roberts (-0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.9 WAR avg. in good season)

SS JJ Hardy (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.0 WAR avg. in good season)

3B Manny Machado (0.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.2 WAR avg. in good season)

LF Nate McLouth (-1.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.0 WAR avg. in good season)

CF Adam Jones (1.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.5 WAR avg. in good season)

RF Nick Markakis (1.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.4 WAR avg. in good season)

DH Wilson Betemit (-0.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.4 WAR avg. in good season)

BENCH (-2.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.5 WAR avg. in good season)

PITCHERS:

SP Jason Hammel (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.4 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Wei-Yin Chen (0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.3 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Miguel Gonzalez (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.9 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Chris Tillman (0.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.7 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Zach Britton (-0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.3 WAR avg. in good season)

CL Jim Johnson (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.6 WAR avg. in good season)

BULLPEN (3.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 6.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 8.7 WAR avg. in good season)


MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER: 78.4 (5th, AL EAST)

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Orioles finished within a given range:

60-64 wins - 0.3%
65-69 wins - 4.1%
70-74 wins - 20.0%
75-79 wins - 37.5%
80-84 wins - 28.7%
85-89 wins - 8.7%
90-94 wins - 1.0%


VEGAS OVER/UNDER: 78.5 (5Dimes); 77.5 (LVH); 76.5 (Atlantis)

RECOMMENDATION: Stay Away