AL CENTRAL - Detroit Tigers

3B Miguel Cabrera is the reigning AL MVP and the first Triple Crown winner since 1967.

OVERVIEW:

POSITION PLAYERS:

C Alex Avila (0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.2 WAR avg. in good season)

1B Prince Fielder (1.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.1 WAR avg. in good season)

2B Omar Infante (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.1 WAR avg. in good season)

SS Jhonny Peralta (0.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.8 WAR avg. in good season)

3B Miguel Cabrera (2.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.9 WAR avg. in good season)

LF Andy Dirks (0.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.4 WAR avg. in good season)

CF Austin Jackson (2.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 4.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.8 WAR avg. in good season)

RF Torii Hunter (1.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.6 WAR avg. in good season) 

DH Victor Martinez (0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.1 WAR avg. in good season)

BENCH (-3.5 WAR avg. in poor season, -0.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.5 WAR avg. in good season)

PITCHERS:

SP Justin Verlander (2.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 7.7 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Max Scherzer (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Doug Fister (0.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.2 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Anibal Sanchez (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.5 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Drew Smyly (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.2 WAR avg. in good season)

CL Bruce Rondon (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.9 WAR avg. in good season)

BULLPEN (3.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 5.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.5 WAR avg. in good season)

MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER: 94.7 (1st, AL CENTRAL)

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Tigers finished within a given range:

75-79 wins - <0.1%
80-84 wins - 1.6%
85-89 wins - 12.0%
90-94 wins - 32.5%
95-99 wins - 35.5%
100-104 wins - 15.8%
105-109 wins - 2.6%
Over 110 wins - 0.1%

VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 92.5 (5Dimes); 93.0 (LVH); 90.0 (Atlantis)

RECOMMENDATION: It's tough to win 90+ games, but if you're betting in any direction with the Tigers, bet the Over. In general though, I'd say stay away.