AL EAST - Boston Red Sox

SP Jon Lester must return to pre-2012 form if the Red Sox have any hope of forgetting last season's nightmare.

OVERVIEW:

When I run through simulations for a season, there are always the end points of the bell curve that have either dramatically high or dramatically low win totals expected. For example, a team that on paper might be good for 85-90 wins normally will win only about 65-70 games 6-8% of the time. Well, 2012 was a 6% season for the Boston Red Sox. Everything that could go wrong did. How much of the blame for that rests on the shoulders of (departed) manager Bobby Valentine is up for debate, but it seems quite clear that even reliable veterans like Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia bailed on Valentine halfway through the year.

Valentine is gone now, and although the Red Sox have lost Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford since the start of 2012, they have restocked with a few subtly valuable pieces, such as Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Ryan Dempster. Not world-beaters, to be sure, but players that can add a little bit of value to the roster. The key for the Red Sox, however, won't be how the new acquisitions perform, it will be what kind of production they get out of Lester, Pedroia, Ortiz and Jacoby Ellsbury (who in 2011 was a runner-up MVP and in 2012 was a non-factor even when he did play).

It's probably asking a little much to expect this team to win the AL East (especially with so many question marks in the rotation), but contrary to many expert projections, I do think they can contend, and if everything breaks the right way, perhaps even shock the world and win the division. If the general malaise that has engulfed Red Sox Nation continues for yet another season though, then the underachieving virus could spread once again and overwhelm this seemingly fickle clubhouse.

POSITION PLAYERS:

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.6 WAR avg. in good season)

1B Mike Napoli (1.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.1 WAR avg. in good season)

2B Dustin Pedroia (2.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 4.9 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.9 WAR avg. in good season)

SS Stephen Drew (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.1 WAR avg. in good season)

3B Will Middlebrooks (0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.3 WAR avg. in good season)

LF Jonny Gomes (-0.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.3 WAR avg. in good season)

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (0.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 6.0 WAR avg. in good season)

RF Shane Victorino (1.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.7 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.3 WAR avg. in good season)

DH David Ortiz (1.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.3 WAR avg. in good season)

BENCH (1.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.6 WAR avg. in good season)

PITCHERS:

SP Jon Lester (1.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.0 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Clay Buchholz (-0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.8 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Felix Doubront (-0.6 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Ryan Dempster (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 4.3 WAR avg. in good season)

SP John Lackey (-0.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.2 WAR avg. in good season)

CL Joel Hanrahan (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.0 WAR avg. in good season)

BULLPEN (1.5 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 5.1 WAR avg. in good season) 


MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER LINE: 84.3 (4th, AL EAST)

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Red Sox finished within a given range:

Under 70 wins - 0.2%
70-74 wins - 2.6%
75-79 wins - 15.8%
80-84 wins - 35.5%
85-89 wins - 32.5%
90-94 wins - 12.0%
95-99 wins - 1.6%
   
VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 83.0 (5Dimes); 82.5 (LVH); 79.5 (Atlantis)

RECOMMENDATION: In general a stay away, leaning toward the over, especially if you can get an Atlantis line like 78-80.