AL CENTRAL - Minnesota Twins

Despite turning 30 this season, C Joe Mauer is still easily the most valuable player on a depleted Twins' team.

OVERVIEW:

POSITION PLAYERS:

C Joe Mauer (2.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 3.9 WAR avg in medium season, 5.9 WAR avg. in good season)

1B Justin Morneau (-0.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.4 WAR avg. in good season)

2B Jamey Carroll (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.8 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.0 WAR avg. in good season)

SS Pedro Florimon Jr. (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.5 WAR avg. in good season)

3B Trevor Plouffe (-0.9 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.4 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.6 WAR avg. in good season)

LF Josh Willingham (1.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.3 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.0 WAR avg. in good season)

CF Darin Mastroianni (0.2 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.2 WAR avg. in good season)

RF Chris Parmelee (-0.8 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.6 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.9 WAR avg. in good season)

DH Ryan Doumit (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.4 WAR avg. in good season)

BENCH (-2.5 WAR avg. in poor season, -1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.0 WAR avg. in good season)

PITCHERS:

SP Scott Diamond (0.7 WAR avg. in poor season, 2.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.2 WAR avg. in good season)
 
SP Vance Worley (0.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.5 WAR avg. in medium season, 3.2 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Kevin Correia (-1.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Mike Pelfrey (0.0 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.2 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.6 WAR avg. in good season)

SP Liam Hendriks (-1.4 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.1 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.3 WAR avg. in good season)

CL Glen Perkins (0.1 WAR avg. in poor season, 1.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 1.7 WAR avg. in good season)

BULLPEN (-1.3 WAR avg. in poor season, 0.0 WAR avg. in medium season, 2.0 WAR avg. in good season)


MLB FORECASTER SCHEDULE-ADJUSTED OVER/UNDER LINE: 67.3 (5th, AL CENTRAL)

PROBABILITIES: In our simulations, here is the frequency with which the Twins finished in a given range:

50-54 wins - 0.5%
55-59 wins - 6.1%
60-64 wins - 24.4%
65-69 wins - 38.1%
70-74 wins - 24.4%
75-79 wins - 6.1%
Over 80 wins - 0.4%
 
VEGAS OVER/UNDER LINE: 67.5 (5Dimes); 67.0 (LVH); 64.5 (Atlantis) 

RECOMMENDATION: Stay away.